The Contagion of Outrage

Tunisia, December 17th, 2010 a Tunisian man named Mohamed Bouazizi lights himself on fire in protest of his food being confiscated by government authorities for attempting to sell the food without a permit. The story causes an uproar and is supposedly the tipping point for the many protests that followed. January 14th, 2011, under constant pressure President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali steps down and flees to Saudi Arabia. February 27th, after continuing protests and violence Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi steps down. Fouad Mebazaa is currently interim President.

Military personnel: 48,000

Population: 10.4 million, GDP: $86 billion



Egypt, February 11th, President Hosni Mubarak (in office since October 14th, 1981) steps down after almost a month of protests and demonstrations. Essam Sharaf has taken power as Prime Minister and Mohamed Hussein Tantawi has taken power as the President and commander-in-chief of the Egyptian Armed Forces. Egypt's inflation rate is nearing 13%.

Military personnel: 1,345,000

Population: 79.1 million, GDP: $487 billion



In Yemen hundreds of civilians have been killed by government forces, some of President Saleh's own tribesmen have broken off and sided with the opposition. Yemen is close to all out war or a volatile regime change. Saleh is willing to step down and has planned for an eventual change in power, but the timing is just not expedient enough to satisfy the will of the people. Yemen's inflation rate is just shy of Egypt at 12.8%.

Military personnel: 140,000

Population: 23 million, GDP: $58 billion.



Libya has transformed from a military dictatorship to revolutionary state with the aid of international forces. Untold casualties mount daily as fighting continues. Colonel Gaddafi has lost control and will eventually flee, be killed or ousted. On September 1rst 1969, Gaddafi led a coup to take Libya from King Idris and now Gaddafi is the one to be deposed. It seems foreign intelligence services may have had a hand in this war's cultivation. I suspect even the public to be made aware of foreign ground forces in Libya as the UK, US, France and NATO to provide ongoing support for, possibly, years to come.

Military personnel: 115,000

Population: 6.5 million, GDP: $96 billion.



Syria has been under constant pressure as government forces and supporters of President Bashar al-Assad battle the mass of protesters throughout. Bashar al-Assad is son of Hafez al-Assad who ruled Syria for 29 years, as a former Minister of Defense Hafez took power after a a long history of overthrown leaders. Hundreds of civilians have been killed and many more wounded or taken as political prisoner, but it seems the revolution in Syria has yet to relent.

Military personnel: 745,000

Population: 22.5 million, GDP: $105 billion



After nearly two months of protests, Bahrain has essentially been put on lock down. Political prisoners have been taking and some are feared to be tortured while captive. A subtle martial law and media whitewash has become obvious. King Hamad bin Isa al Khalifa faces a real threat of further uprising and possibly loosing power. Protesters have been killed. The royal family has many ties and may retain power with the aid and/or support of many powerful friends.

Military personnel: 20,000+

Population: 1.2 million, GDP: $29 billion



In The Ivory Coast (the Republic of Côte d'Ivoire) former President Laurent Gbagbo had refused to step down after current President Alassane Ouattara won the election. United Nations and French forces stepped in to help Ouattara take power after Gbagbo had been suppressing protests with deadly and non-violent force. The UN and French forces went so far as bombing weapons installations of former President Gbagbo.

Military personnel: 28,000

Population: 21 million, GDP: $37 billion



Oman sits in a vital position in the world near it's eastern coast lies the Staright of Hormuz which provides access from the Gulf of Oman to the Persian Gulf. Riots and protests prompted Sultan Qaboos bin Said to oust cabinet members, other high government officials and gives lawmaking power to two separate councils (one appointed by the Sultan). Protesters persist and the government fights back, killing and wounding many of it's own citizens.

Military personnel: 90,000

Population: 2.9 million, GDP: $75 billion



Jordan has been experiencing riots over food and fuel prices. King Abdullah II has attempted to make concessions, including $650 million for "safety measures" and forming a new cabinet. Those loyal to the King and Prime Minister Bakhit or bound by duty have been pitted against the reformers. Like the other regional unease this has been going on for months.

Military personnel: 175,000

Population: 6.4 million, GDP: $35 billion



In Algeria, food riots and anti-government protests have made for a ripe tipping point if tensions are not eased. Protests have called for, among other things, the resignation of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Many have been killed and thousands injured.

Military personnel: 485,000

Population: 35.4 million, GDP: $250 billion



Nigeria, which purportedly holds a little over 3% of the world's oil, has come under focus at the National Economist as turmoil around the elections has made a tenuous situation even worse. Voting has been delayed twice now and bombings on voting day has caused much controversy. In a nation where rebels regularly fight for a share of the oil wealth, President Johnathan Goodluck (in power for less than one year) has felt great pressure from the citizenry. The People's Democratic Party seems to be losing ground as the votes are counted. Nigeria's inflation rate is currently close to 14%, meaning at the current pace consumer prices will double in 5 years.

Military personnel: 160,000

Population: 152 million, GDP: $375 billion



Morocco, in response to protests and riots, King Mohammed VI promises reform. Some have been killed and many injured, but the Moroccan protesters have been quite peaceful from what I have seen. Agent provocateurs have been rumored to be causing trouble in the crowds, which is not atypical for these sort of demonstrations.

Military personnel: 395,000

Population: 32.2 million, GDP: $193 billion



Additionally, protests and riots in Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, increased violence in Israel and Palestine and news that southern Sudan intends to become independent by July of this year lend additional uncertainty to these already volatile areas.


The instability in the Middle Eat and North Africa has come to a boiling point, now 45% of OPEC nations are undergoing regime change or battling substantial revolutionary forces. Production and transport problems will certainly cause some significant (and likely sporadic) supply shortages and higher prices going forward barring a deflationary collapse, which I think still lies on the horizon past a sea of debt monetization.